Post #5 – Oh No, Not Again
Well this sucks. The Devils have lost six straight, have won a grand total of one game in the month of December and get ready for it… are 3-12-3 in their last 18 games. That’s 9 points in 18 games.
There is a rule of thumb used by NHL teams that goes like this: 6 points earned out of each five game span keeps a team in the playoff hunt. By that math, the Devils are 12-13 points off that pace during this recent stretch.
That ain’t good.
As we head into the Christmas holiday and COVID threatens the schedules of all major sports in the US, the Devils are in serious danger of derailing yet another season that initially showed promise.
It’s been a tough month plus for the Devils, who sat at a respectable 7-3-2 on November 12th.
Many of the feel-good storylines coming into the season have been replaced with dread, and the collective feeling for Devils’ fans at this point is all too familiar.
“Here we go again” is the adage I’ve been repeating to myself over the last 10 days or so as the following news broke around the team:
- December 10th: Goaltender Jonathan Bernier will be placed on Injured Reserve
- December 11th: Nico Hischier & Ryan Graves enter COVID19 protocol
- December 12th-present: Aside from COVID19 making key players unavailable, the Devils are dealing with illness and general fatigue
- December 15th: The Devils have acquired Goaltender Jon Gillies from the St. Louis Blues
- December 15-18th: Christian Jaros, Jesper Boqvist, P.K. Subban join Hischier & Graves on the COVID19 list
- December 18th: Jesper Bratt, the team’s leading scorer, will be out of the lineup against Detroit
Obviously, there is a correlation here between the unfortunate developments and the recent skid, however, here are a few more misery-filled observations I’ve made over the last month or so:
- In 10 games since returning to the lineup, Jack Hughes has 3G-2A-5P, no multi-point games, and generally looks to be a tad less dominant than he did in the two opening games of the season
- Early season offensive leaders Pavel Zacha, Andreas Johnsson, and Dawson Mercer have all cooled off tremendously, their numbers over the last 15 games:
- Zacha: 2G-2A-4P
- Johnsson: 3G-5A-8P, which includes back to back games against the Predators and Flyers where he had 3G-3A-6P, so two total points in the other 13 games
- Mercer: 3G-2A-5P
- Over his last 11 games started, Mackenzie Blackwood has a 3.09 GAA and .900 save percentage
And how about this: since drafting Jack Hughes at #1 overall in the 2019 NHL Draft, the New Jersey Devils franchise has played 154 games. Over that stretch:
- Jack Hughes has played 129 games
- Nico Hischier has played 104 games
- Together, they have played 78 games, 50 of which came in Jack’s rookie season
That means since Fitzgerald & Co. began its first full season in the front office, the two franchise stars have been on the ice together for 28 games out of a possible 85.
Considering how much has been made about “the team will go as Jack & Nico go,” in the last two seasons, we haven’t had many long stretches with both in the lineup.
Let’s dive into some of the aforementioned recent developments a bit further. I’ll also make the case for how the Devils can turn this around, and what types of silver linings are on the horizon.
I’m going to categorize my thoughts into three buckets:
- The Unquestionably Miserable
- This Could Go Either Way
- Here’s Something Positive
The Unquestionably Miserable
Inarguably, and perhaps most importantly, losing Jonathan Bernier for an ambiguous but likely long period of time is a huge blow, and perfectly captures the “here we go again” pain Devils fans are feeling.
It doesn’t take a neuroscientist to read between the lines here. Between Ruff’s comments when Bernier was placed on IR and the corresponding move the Devils made to trade for Jon Gillies, we can count on Bernier being unavailable for the foreseeable future.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Something outside of the team’s control has heeded the Devils ability to roster two competent NHL goaltenders. As a result, the team is going to lean heavily and uncomfortably on Mackenzie Blackwood in an effort to win hockey games. Inevitably, this will put too much burden on Blackwood. He won’t play as consistently well, and will be forced to play through more wear-and-tear type injuries than he otherwise should. This is exactly what the Devils have been attempting to resolve over the last two seasons by bringing in Bernier and Corey Crawford in 20-21.
For a young team with holes in its roster, competing in the best division in the NHL, you need consistently above average goaltending to punch above your weight. This issue compounds the team’s year-end results and performance on a nightly basis.
And so the Devils and their fans find themselves in familiar territory: hoping some other goaltender not named Mackenzie Blackwood can provide good enough play to give the team a chance to win on those nights. The early results from Daws, Schmid, and Gillies are not promising.
You also have to throw the current COVID19 developments into the misery section. A lineup that is without Hischier, Graves, and Subban for multiple games is a lineup that is likely to struggle.
Graves has been fantastic this year. And while Dougie Hamilton receives a ton of well-deserved praise, Graves has been the perfect complement to that top pair. It’s not easy to replace a guy like that, and it becomes even harder when another veteran two-way defenseman who can help fill those minutes (Subban) is also unavailable.
In isolation, losing Graves/Hischier/Subban for a few games should be manageable. However, it’s the fill-ins that have really exposed the Devils depth and restricted their competitiveness. As mentioned above, having average or below average goaltending becomes an underlying plague.
And with traditionally-competent depth players Jesper Boqvist and Christian Jaros also finding themselves in COVID protocol, the Devils have iced a threadbare lineup the last two games, including a 3rd defensive pairing featuring Kevin Bahl and Mason Geertsen.
As a perennially optimistic Devils fan, I genuinely have felt like I’ve had to close my eyes with those two on the ice in the two most recent games against Detroit and Pittsburgh.
To Geertsen’s credit, the guy plays a different position virtually every time he’s in the lineup, and he does bring the physicality, which we haven’t had in years. He had a monster hit in the Pittsburgh game and looked like he had settled in a tad more.
Nonetheless, a team featuring Geertsen or Bahl as your 5-6 defensemen is a team that isn’t playing meaningful games in April.
As for the last unquestionably miserable facet of this Devils team so far this season, which I won’t bother spending a ton of time on: the power play. Yikes.
Having said all that, as promised to readers back in February during the WOTD kickoff, we do not harp on the negative. So let’s move along.
This Could Go Either Way
Here’s a positive spin: despite the recurring storylines the last three seasons, the fact that Jack & Nico have so infrequently been in the lineup together means we really don’t have a good idea as to what this team is capable of.
In 8 games played together this season, the Devils are 3-4-1. Not quite what you’d hope, but it’s fitting for this section, just shy of .500. I am still optimistic that this current Devils roster, when fully healthy (which would include Jonathan Bernier) with Jack & Nico playing good hockey, is a team that competes for a playoff spot. The ugly truth is that very few teams stay close to 100% healthy for an 82-game season in the NHL. The depth just still isn’t there in the franchise, though there is reason for hope, which I’ll touch on in the last section.
We saw glimpses in the stretch when Jack returned on November 30th against San Jose, through Nico’s last game played on December 10th against Nashville, that the Devils have a potentially problematic-for-other-teams top six forward group. From the eye test, it looked like the three amigos line of Zacha-Hischier-Bratt was starting to click. Hughes had yet to find two consistent linemates; however, of the two top centers, I worry less about Jack’s ability to create. He’s shown that he can drive a line regardless of who is flanking him.
Having said that, you do want your most dynamic offensive player to find chemistry with someone. We all know Hughes had success with Sharangovich and Kuokkanen last season, but neither of them have earned any type of top six role through the first third of this season.
I have often found myself wondering about putting Bratt with Hughes, which the coaching staff has been very hesitant to do over the last few seasons. We did see them together for a bit with Nico out, and I feel like the coaching staff likes Bratt with Hischier when available, but the mind can’t help but wonder what a line would look like over a longer stretch featuring the team’s two most dynamic forwards.
Let’s entertain combos for a moment. Let’s say you throw Bratt and Hughes together for a long stretch. Who is the third winger? It could certainly be Zacha, but I like the idea of keeping Zacha with Hischier. It could be Tatar or Johnsson but for whatever reason both of those options feel like “meh.” Here’s a real “could go either way” candidate: Sharangovich.
Sharnagovich has struggled mightily to get going offensively this season. However, there have been moments where he lets that shot fly, and it still looks quick and lethal. Bratt and Hughes are well-documented as the best puck possessors on the Devils roster, and they’re both great at zone-entry.
Could playing with the two speedy and creative forwards re-ignite Sharangovich’s scoring touch? I don’t know. In theory, it should. On the other hand, based on Sharangovich’s play so far this season, it might hamper the other two. But it’s an interesting proposition nonetheless.
The most consistent offensive player for the Devils this season has been Bratt. Regardless of what line he’s been on, he has produced. Whether it’s been with Zacha & Hischier or Mercer & Johnsson, he’s been good.
If the Devils tried that trio, how do the other lines stack up?
Well, let’s go with a few obvious choices. Zacha-Hischier-Johnsson or Tatar makes sense as the other top line. For the third, the odd man out of Tatar/Johnsson with Mercer-Kuokkanen.
But let me throw in a dark horse here: Jimmy Vesey.
His production for the Devils isn’t eye popping but from the eye test, Vesey has been good for the Devils this season. He shows flashes, he’s fast enough, he has good hockey IQ, and he’s been capable of playing up and down the lineup. And in the opposite vein, Kuokkanen just hasn’t been good.
When watching the Zacha-Hischier-Bratt line, it’s obvious they bring a lot of speed. They possess well into the zone and they cycle well. But if you pull Bratt off that line, what’s the identity? The thought of Johnsson & Tatar just leaves something to be desired. I would consider throwing Vesey with those two. That does give the line some potential identity. Vesey brings grit and has the skill to play with both. Hischier plays a gritty game as well, and Zacha can shoot the puck. Something about that trio makes sense to me. It also seems like a top six line that would play well at both ends of the ice against other teams. You could theoretically match that line up against other top lines and have a line that contributes and doesn’t shy away against heavier teams like Washington or the New York Rangers.
And the added bonus would mean that you stick Tatar & Johnsson with Mercer, which makes for a nice third line and keeps 2/3s of the Bratt-Mercer-Johnsson line together.
I’m spitballing here but the Devils offense has been shit – why not mix things up?
Last thing I’ll mention here, which could easily have been filed under “unquestionably miserable:” Ty Smith.
The young defenseman was SO promising last year as a rookie. He has struggled quite a bit this year. But that happens with young dynamic defensemen in the NHL. They struggle. It takes longer for them to develop than young forwards. To me it looks like Smith hasn’t played with much confidence this season. I think if the power play gets going, and Smith starts to get on the scoresheet, the confidence will come, and the rest of his game will come too. I think we see the dynamic rookie from last season for a nice stretch at some point this season. I’m not concerned about his long-term prospects.
Here’s Something Positive
Being that it’s Christmas Eve, let’s finish off with this section.
What do Devils fans have to feel good about when the season resumes on Monday?
Dawson Mercer.
Let’s not forget during this awfully miserable stretch that the Devils franchise has stumbled upon another potential core franchise player. Mercer was not a guy expected to be on the roster or contribute as significantly as he has. It’s actually hard (and a bit sad) to think about what this team would look like without him this season.
Regardless of where the Devils finish the season, it’s an enormously positive development that Mercer is NHL ready and showing such promise. It’s easy to get excited thinking about a potentially dominant 1-2-3 punch of Hughes-Hischier-Mercer down the middle for this Devil’s club for years to come.
I’m also not worried about Mercer dropping off. He’s not one-dimensional the way Sharangovich was last year. Aside from his offense, he’s got a motor that doesn’t stop. He’s a bit of a pest. He plays a 200-foot game, he’s great on the forecheck, he anticipates really well and has a high hockey IQ.
Beyond Mercer, it’s important to remember that Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Graves have really been as advertised. Can you imagine if we were talking about both of them underperforming right now? Man, that would be classic recent-Devil’s fans’ luck. But that hasn’t been the case. Both are really good and both are performing up to and maybe above what the Devils were hoping for.
With the recent COVID developments and league-wide illnesses, the Devils are catching a big break here getting the last two games before Christmas cancelled and the season paused until Monday.
As we know, it’s been a miserable stretch that the Devils have been stumbling through. A week+ of rest and regroup is exactly what the team needs. Mentally. Physically. Emotionally.
I’m certain the collective feeling in the locker room when hearing the league has postponed this week’s games was something like “thank God.”
Lastly, as I mentioned above, the Devils depth is an issue. We’ve seen it come to roost this season with key players out of the lineup.
But how is that different from recent seasons? Well, help is on the way. The Utica Comets, the Devil’s AHL team, has been lights out this year. They’re the top team in the AHL. And the roster is full of useful, high-upside prospects that have been drafted by the franchise.
Alexander Holtz. Grahame Clarke. Nolan Foote. Kevin Bahl. Reilly Walsh. Tyce Thompson. Nikita Okhotiuk. Nico Daws. Akira Schmid. Jesper Boqvist?
These are all players that have legitimate potential to be good NHL players. Throw in 2020 first rounder russian defenseman Shakir Mukhamadullin currently playing in the KHL and there’s reason for optimism.
I’ll finish with this. I am really disappointed by what we’ve seen from the Devils. It’s been incredibly frustrating to see the roster underperform yet again and start digging a hole that might be too big to climb out of so early into the season. Again.
But the truth remains. There is promise and hope on the horizon. The Devils can compete with their current roster, they just need to figure it out. There is help on the way in the coming seasons.
It’s a lot of the same old storylines but I’ve got hope.
After all, it’s Christmas, the “season of perpetual hope,” as Mrs. McCalister tells the airline attendant in Home Alone.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Let’s hope the Devils find their version of John Candy as the “Polka King of the Midwest” to take them home.
Go Devils.
Word Of The Devil 