Post #6: 2022-2023

We are back again for a new season of Devils hockey. And with it comes, dare I say with fears of sounding like a broken record, renewed hope?!

I had hoped to do a season preview post to analyze the offseason, however, we all know here at WOTD, I haven’t been terribly timely with posts.

I plan to do better this season! And at the very least, a bit more frequent with updates.

With that intro, here’s what we’ll cover in this post to kickoff the season:

1. A speed-analysis of the off-season
2. Keys to success this season
3. Reviewing the first 2 games

Let’s get do it. What has transpired since the end of last season?

The Offseason

Departures:

• Ty Smith (traded)
• Pavel Zacha (traded)
• PK Subban (retired)
• Janne Kuokkanen (buyout)
• Jimmy Vesey (free agency)
• AJ Greer (free agency)
• Colton White (free agency)

Additions:

• Ondrej Palat (free agency)
• Erik Haula (trade)
• Vitek Vanecek (trade)
• Brendan Smith (free agency)
• John Marino (trade)

The Devils also landed Simon Nemec at #2 overall in the 2022 NHL Draft, a Slovakian defenseman who figures to be an enormous part of the future core, though his full-time NHL arrival is not expected until next season.

On the whole, I thought it was a good, productive offseason for the Devils. The biggest storylines, however, may have been the moves that did not occur.

The Devils were reportedly heavily involved in both the free agency frenzy for Johnny Gaudreau and trade talks for Matthew Tkachuk. Both of the former Calgary Flames superstars were heavily sought after prizes of the offseason, and the Devils unfortunately missed out on both of them.

No sense in crying over spilled milk, or missed acquisitions in this case, but I wanted to share my thoughts.

Quite obviously, either Gaudreau or Tkachuk would have been enormous additions to this Devils roster. I was particularly partial to Tkachuk.

When the Devils missed on Gaudreau and it was announced he would sign with Columbus, I was left scratching my head the same as the rest of the hockey world. I can’t say I was hugely disappointed, however.

While Gaudreau is a world-beating player, and his arrival in NJ would have undoubtedly sped up the back-to-relevancy process, I thought it was a silver lining. Gaudreau is an undersized, speedy player. While none of the current Devils forwards can hold a torch to him (except for maybe Jack Hughes), we do have a core full of undersized, speedy forwards: Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Dawson Mercer, Yegor Sharangovich, Alexander Holtz. Combined with the cap hit that may have hamstrung future roster flexibility, I thought that a future Devils playoff team boasting a Gaudreau & Hughes-led crop of forwards would simply not have enough grit and physicality for them to compete for a Stanley Cup.

Perhaps that’s too much of a nuanced long-term opinion to outweigh the prospects of adding a top 10 NHL forward to the roster, but I instead thought a guy like Matthew Tkachuk would be the perfect top 6 forward to compliment the aforementioned group.

Despite the Hughes and Tkachuk families being close personal friends, GM Tom Fitzgerald being a cousin of the Tkachuk family, and the Devils having more than enough cap flexibility to make a long-term contract work for Matthew, it was not meant to be.

That stung me, as it felt like a generational opportunity to acquire perhaps a hand-crafted perfect winger to play alongside Jack Hughes for the better part of the next decade. After seeing what Florida ultimately gave up to Calgary, it did take some bite out of the sting since it was a hell of a haul and one the Devils wouldn’t have wanted and probably couldn’t have managed to match.

C’est la vie – such is life. What’re ya gonna do?

I was reluctantly happy with the rest of the moves the Devils made.

Though the Palat deal was a bit rich in both dollars and term, that’s the open market price for a top-6 forward with proven playoff pedigree and 2 recent Stanley Cup rings. I don’t expect that deal to age well, but in the early years Palat should play up to its value, and it’s hard to put a dollar value on the leadership, experience, and winning tradition he brings to a still-young Devils team that has experienced a lot more bad times than good.

To a lesser extent, Smith, Haula, and Marino all bring similar winning pedigree to a team starved for it. Smith is in the twilight years of his career but is a serviceable 6/7 defenseman who brings some snarl and a lot of experience. Haula and Marino have plenty of useful years left and come from a culture of championship contention (Bruins & Penguins, respectively). I am particularly excited for Marino, who showed top-4 upside for Pittsburgh before disappointing the last couple of years.

Still young, a change of scenery could reignite his upside, while his status quo play will still be good enough for a 4-6 defenseman on a good NHL team.

Perhaps the most important acquisition of the offseason is the addition of goaltender Vitek Vanecek.

I view this as a moderate risk/reward acquisition. Were there better goalies available in the offseason? Yes. Did the Devils need to address their historically-poor goaltending from last season? Yes. Is Vanecek the guy for the job? Maybe.

This segues perfectly into the next topic of this post: 

Keys to success for 2022-2023

1. Goaltending
2. Goaltending
3. Goaltending

All jokes aside, it’s hard to understate how incredibly terrible the Devils goaltending was last season. Seven different goaltenders played for the black & red last year, combining for the league-worst save percentage. It’s been a recurring theme for the Devils in recent years: high hopes for Mackenzie Blackwood, who ultimately gets hurt and then plays poorly upon return; a veteran goaltender signed to provide 1B duties who ends up not playing (Crawford retiring in 2020; Bernier season ending injury in 2021); and a mess of not-NHL caliber goaltenders trying to fill the void.

Fitzgerald addressed it again, this time trading for a young-ish and talented-ish Vitek Vanecek who has proven himself to be an average to slightly above-average goalie in the NHL the last few seasons with the Washington Capitals.

Blackwood is healthy again and the hopes are high for him to rekindle the once-promising embers of his young career. And somewhere in the organization Jonathan Bernier is still rehabbing last year’s surgery, though the club has been mum on details of what the plan is for Bernier when and if he is healthy enough to play again.

The hope is that the competition between two young and promising goaltenders in Blackwood and Vanecek is enough for one or both of them to elevate their play for the team to have a chance to win most nights. And maybe Bernier comes back healthy to provide insurance if one or both falter.

Expectations aside, if the Devils can manage even bottom-third average goaltending this season, which seems like a conservative-enough goal, it would be huge just to be able to evaluate where the hell this team is. 

If they can be league average, what does that mean? Well, I think combined with a few other things going right, it means Devils-nation may actually be enjoying competitive hockey in March and April.

What are those other things?

• Dougie Hamilton needs to be the elite, top-end defenseman we paid him to be 
• Jack Hughes needs to play 70+ games
• Nico Hischier needs to play 70+ games
• Jesper Bratt needs to maintain last year’s play
• Palat, Marino need to be a touch better than they’ve been in previous seasons
• Mercer, Sharangovich, Holtz need to all take another step

And here’s one more, less obvious thing I believe needs to happen for the Devils to be in the playoff hunt:

• One of Kevin Bahl, Tyce Thompson, Jesper Boqvist, Fabian Zetterlund need to become NHL regulars and outplay their expectations

Essentially, in my humble opinion, the Devils need to play up to their basic potential, and stay mostly healthy. I don’t think there needs to be some outrageous above-average performance by any of the roster players for them to be relevant. Average goaltending, healthy stars, and up-to-potential play from everyone gets them close to a playoff berth. And a surprise season from one of the maturing prospects gets them over the hump.

Considering the last few seasons, maybe that’s too much to ask.

On the flip side of that – bad goaltending, long-term injuries to any of Hughes, Hischier, Hamilton, Blackwood/Vanecek keep them far out of the playoff hunt, again.

With all of that said, we are two games into this season. Two very disappointing games at that. Let’s talk about them.

Through Two Games

If you consider all of the things I just mentioned as keys to success for the season, these first two games have been just the opposite.

Hischier was hurt for game one. Hughes has been Hughes but he’s been held scoreless. Hamilton has been underwhelming. The power play was terrible against Philly, better-looking against Detroit but did not bear fruit. Personnel deployment and coaching decisions have been very questionable. Sharangovich and other secondary stars have been pedestrian.

Now, I have seen an overwhelmingly negative outcry online from the Devils faithful. And I get it, it feels like “here we go again…” Many of the nerd models and pundits had the Devils as a playoff or playoff bubble team, so we aren’t the only ones evaluating our team through a lens of higher expectations.

But for goodness sake everybody – it’s been TWO GAMES! Let’s all take a collective deep breath here and exercise a teeny bit of patience.

I’ll ignore the obvious negatives for a moment here: the piss-poor goaltending, the lack of effort, the bad coaching decisions, the softness in the d-zone, and the impotent power play, and focus on a handle of observations both positive and negative:

• John Marino looks good; he’s -1 through two games and led the Devils defensemen in ice time against Detroit
• Erik Haula looks underwhelming despite great prowess in the faceoff circle
• I was out on him before the season started and these first two games confirmed my beliefs: Tomas Tatar is ineffective and washed up, get him out of the lineup
• Personnel deployment: line combos and power play lines were awful
• Jesper Bratt looks like he will have no problem picking up where he left off last year
• Fabian Zetterlund deserves a spot in the bottom six
• Lindy Ruff’s seat was warm heading into the season, it’s nearly on fire through two games
• Palat? Not a great two-game debut
• Holtz belongs, I think?

I’d also like to note – the Devils looked dominant for stretches of both games. The third period of the Philadelphia game, and spurts in each period against Detroit. But overall, the effort has been concerning. The Philly game was weird but you have to point a few fingers at Lindy. He’s a veteran coach who knows exactly the kind of product a John Tortorella team is going to put on the ice, and the Devils were just not prepared. They were outhussled, outskated, and beaten by a far less talented roster. How is that not part of your message and game plan to anticipate that from a Flyers team with Tortorella at the helm?

Tatar’s usage is perhaps the most egregious of coaching decisions. He played most of the Detroit game with Bratt & Hughes, and saw a lot of time with PP1 in both games. He’s simply not quick enough or good enough to play with our top-end guys. He’s also not gritty, energetic, or physical enough to play a role in the bottom six or contribute on the penalty kill. He is bringing nothing to the lineup that someone like, say, Jesper Boqvist couldn’t also bring.

Until they play themselves out of these roles, the top six forward deployment should like some combination of the following

Bratt-Hughes-Holtz/Sharangovich

Palat-Hischier-Mercer

I am personally not a fan of two “balanced” power play units. From the jump, odds are stacked against a power play unit converting no matter who is on the ice. Because of that fact, in my opinion, you have to give yourself the best possible chance to put pucks in the net by deploying your best five offensive players. At the very least, you want your power play to provide momentum if it doesn’t convert.

Again, until they play themselves off the unit, here’s a crack at PP1:

Holtz-Hischier-Bratt

Hamilton-Hughes

I would work the overload out of the right corner featuring Hughes and Bratt, run the unit through them and allow them to distribute. Hamilton patrols the blue and Holtz provides the big shot on his offside to keep the kill honest. Hisch sticks in front of the net and plays the bumper, and can rotate through the overload where needed.

Since everyone is calling for Ruff’s head, and clamoring for newly signed associate coach Andrew Brunette to take over the reins, it’s worth noting that Brunette is in charge of the power play currently. It’s early, yes, but his personnel selection didn’t inspire much confidence. Erik Haula and Tomas Tatar on the top unit over guys who can shoot the puck like Holtz or Sharangovich? Sorry, but fuck off.

For the Devils to turn the ship around quickly, and if the coaching staff wants to put themselves in the best position to be less-fireable, the top-end players need to be deployed as such. There needs to be more effort across the board. Our top end and supporting scorers need to find their touch. And for the love of god, our goaltending needs to be better. You just can’t win games or find consistent success if you’re required to score 5-6 goals every night.

Let’s finish with one of my favorite exercises – putting together combos and what would be my preferred lineup.

Here is what I’d love to see against the Ducks on Tuesday and/or in the near-term

Bratt-Hughes-Holtz

Palat-Hischier-Mercer

Sharangovich-Boqvist-Zetterlund

Wood-Haula-Bastian/Thompson (if available)

Sieganthaler-Hamilton

Graves-Marino

Smith-Severson

Blackwood

Is that third line a bit of a gamble? Sure. Here’s my rationale: you play your top six as you should. And if one of those lines is having an off-night, you give yourself supportive scoring with that third line. Boqvist is inconsistent and Zetterlund is a bit of an unknown commodity, but they’re both young and show flashes of promise. Sharangovich has scoring touch, and Zetterlund is a bulldog. I’d rather watch a few games of that lineup than the same old Tomas Tatar show or Miles Wood & Erik Haula filling in as a below-average third line. And if it’s not working out in-game, you can give that fourth line featuring two veterans more minutes, and mix and match. Sharangovich can move into the top six if someone is sluggish there.

I’m also intrigued to see Tyce Thompson. He’s had a string of bad injury luck, making the big club out of camp the last two seasons, before getting hurt and not getting an opportunity.

He’s fast and gritty, and was a point-per-game player in Utica last year, albeit in a small sample size. He has some size and his brother Tage just blew-up for Buffalo last year. I think he brings a better skillset to the bottom six than McLeod or Bastian. I would like to see what he can do, assuming he gets healthy.

We shall see where we go from here. Perhaps my next post is one announcing the Devils have moved on from Lindy Ruff.

For me, I’m keeping the faith. I expect Blackwood & Vanecek to show up stronger and with vengeance in their next couple of starts.

I see a dominating win against Anaheim this Tuesday – book it.

Go Devils.