Post #17: Early Goings

The season is officially underway and the Devils have been… well, kinda average. And that might be generous.

At the risk of overreacting to slow starts, since we’re all aware of how that can go, it’s important to remember that although the roster is very similar to last year, there are some new faces and players taking on new roles, and it can take some time for it to all mesh together.

What can be said through the first four games, though, is something that was expected this season: opponents are bringing their best against the Devils. The Devils aren’t catching anybody by surprise the way they might have last year.

I am penning this post after the 10/20 game vs. the New York Islanders, which, despite yielding four goals and needing OT to secure the win, was the team’s most impressive effort of the season. It felt a little like the tale of two teams in the first three games versus the most recent win against the Islanders.

Through the first three, the Devils looked pedestrian. SLOW starts, sloppy defensive play, stick penalties, weak in the d-zone. There was a lot of run-and-gun and some key players have been slow to get started.

In game four – the Devils dictated play, set the tone with their speed and puck possession. World class goaltender Ilya Sorokin kept it close enough for the Isles to play opportunistic hockey and take advantage of a few gaffs.

Here are a few takeaways through the first four…

The Good

• Jack Hughes is, well, unbelievable. He is a gamebreaker and despite my own admitted bias, he looks very much justified as a top 5(?) player in the league, in the same tier as McDavid/Draisaitl/MacKinnon/Makar/Matthews. Through four games, Jack leads the NHL in points with 10, though he’s not the only Devil with a spot in the top 10 point leaders, which leads to my next takeaway…
• Jesper Bratt looks like he has taken another step. With 8 points through four games, his offensive game looks potent, and dare I say he looks even faster and more confident? But that’s not the part of his game that’s impressed me most. It seems like #63 has added a new element to his game – physicality. Obviously a smaller player, Bratt has not shied away from dirty areas or physical contact this year as he may have in years past. In fact he’s been initiating it in the early going – winning 50/50 battles with his body, barreling into opponents off the forecheck, and even finding some penalty kill time for the first time in his career. It seems like the criticism he took for ‘disappearing’ offensively and looking soft in the playoffs last year may have lit a new fire in him and if the early returns keep up, that contract he signed for eight years might be a real bargain.
• Michael McLeod has picked up right where he left off in the playoffs last year – cementing himself as a heart-and-soul, gritty, willing to do it all, with the talent to do more than 4th line things, type of guy. He is continuing to look like that type of bottom six player you absolutely need to win a cup, who gives you the same consistent effort night in and night out. Loving his game.
• Dougie looks like Dougie. Snipping and moving pucks. Enough said.
• Nate Bastian also continuing to look like a valuable bottom six guy who brings snarl and competence in the offensive zone. Again, you need those guys to win Cups.

Good, But The Jury Is Still Out

• Luke Hughes is going to be an elite talent. Already, he is an elite skater and puck distributor. However, it’s going to take some more time for him to fully adjust and dominate the NHL. He is not yet someone who finishes plays in the d-zone. That said, he’s been fine defending the rush, and the rest of his game will come.
• Kevin Bahl. I almost put this one in the above section of only ‘good,’ but like Hughes, I think there is room for improvement here, but it will come. Kevin Bahl is a noticeably better player than he was last year. He had a very strong preseason, and that has mostly carried over to the regular season. He has embraced a shutdown, physical role on the backend, playing to his strengths as a mountain of a man. He is also, however, moving the puck very well. He looks more mobile, his feet look quicker, and his reads look better too. I do believe at some point this season, he will comfortably be relied upon as a shutdown defender against the opponent’s top players, and fill the role Ryan Graves provided last year. But he’s not there quite yet. There have been some flubs, and his partner John Marino has not been the same John Marino from last season. But this will come too.
• Tyler Toffoli looks good. He clearly belongs at the top of our lineup and should be capable of potting 20-30 with this team’s top 6. That said, he hasn’t popped off the screen just yet, and moreover, I haven’t seen much snarl from him. One of the reasons I was excited to see him with this team, is because he can play a rugged, take-no-shit game. He can be a pest – a Corey Perry type player, and the Devils haven’t had a player like that in their top 6 in a very long time. He is the kind of forward you want with smaller players like Hughes, Bratt, Hischier, and Mercer who can step in and keep the other team honest. That said, he’s a veteran, he knows what he’s doing and he knows when to pick his spots. He should be a fan favorite in the coming weeks and months.
• 71, 56, 18, 92 all look good. Haula probably the best of the bunch so far. No issues, solid play and veteran consistency. Palat probably leaving a little more to be desired of that group, particularly because Ruff has given him top 6 minutes for the majority of the first four games. But nothing to be concerned about here.
• Alex Holtz has been fine. No he hasn’t lit up the score sheet or dominated games yet, but in my opinion, he also doesn’t look out of place or a liability. Ruff has kept him away from our top players through all four games, testing the youngster’s ability to be effective without relying on other stars. Eventually, he will need to start producing for him to stick around, but he has been a reasonably good 200-foot player.
• Goaltending has been fine. The Devils defense, as mentioned in the season preview post, is not (yet) as good as it was last year. They may get there at some point, but there is less depth on the back-end and as a result, Vanecek & Schmid have faced more rubber through four games. Though not spectacular, goaltending has not been a problem. Yet.
• The power play. Mixed feelings because it has been statistically successful. Particularly against the Isles after they made some tweaks and went 4-for-5. I was glad to see them ‘consolidate’ units after the first three, but I am not a fan of ‘spreading the wealth’ on the man advantage. Stack your first unit with your best five players. The Devils are lucky to boast enough players to have a more-than-competent 2nd unit, but there is no reason to intentionally do it. I would be rolling: 28-13-63, 86-7. 2nd unit: 73-91-18, 10-43.

The Not So Good

• It’s early, so we’re not going to overreact or get too negative. But let’s start with the easy one. Timo Meier has not looked like the nearly nine million dollar man we just paid him to be. He’s looked slow, uninspired, and undisciplined with a few bad stick penalties. He looked much, much better against the Islanders, but we need more of that. I did see a stat that Meier historically has gotten off to slow starts, which is fairly common for guys who play his brand of hockey. It can take those bigger, bruising forwards some time to find their game over the course of an 82-game season. I’m not concerned about Timo.
• John Marino and the depth on defense in general. Similar to Timo, I am not worried about the former. John Marino will be just fine. The depth of our defense, as mentioned a few times at this point, is inferior compared to last season. At least until L.Hughes & Bahler become more finished products, which I do believe will happen later this year. But for now, we look a little raw and lacking depth.
• Which loops into my next point. Brendan Smith. Flat out not good. I do like Smith and respect what he’s done in this league. He’s clearly a respected veteran and well liked in the dressing room. He’s willing to do whatever the team asks of him. I also do think he takes far more criticism from the fan base that he deserves. That said, he is clearly the worst defenseman on this roster and he doesn’t provide a ton of confidence when he’s out there. If Colin Miller hadn’t been hurt in practice, I think he would have drawn in over Smith against the Islanders. If it were me calling the coaching decisions, I would pair Luke with Marino and let Kevin Bahl play on the 3rd pair with Miller. That would provide Luke with a more steady partner, and is more a vote of confidence in Kevin Bahl than it is a perceived demotion, as I think he is capable of being the feature defender on his own pair. Worst comes to worst, you sit Miller/Smith and run 5 in situations that call for it.
• Aside from Timo, a few other star players have been missing to start the season. Nico & Dawson Mercer have been a tad invisible, though not particularly bad. It feels a bit like Ruff has Mercer on a tighter leash than some of the other star forwards – demoting him from top lines and shying away from him during key moments in the game. Of all the Devils top players, however, these might be the two I am least concerned with. Why is that? Because 13 & 91 are two of the hardest working, honest hockey players on this team and in the league. They play the game the right way, they don’t take short cuts, they earn their moments.

Simply put, the Devils need more from their lineup, and specifically from guys not named Hughes, Bratt, or Hamilton.

It was well-publicized that Lindy sat both Meier & Marino in the 3rd period of the loss to Florida. Amanda Stein, the Devils all-access reporter put it best: not only was that a message sent to the individual players, but it set a precedent for the team this year. Expectations are simply higher. If a player isn’t on his game on a given night, that player won’t continue to see the ice, regardless of who they are or how large their contract. The roster is deep and talented, and there isn’t room for any passengers. I respect the move from Ruff.

Is there reason for concern? No, but I think the fanbase would be feeling a little more comfortable if the stars were all popping off and the Devils weren’t yielding 3-4 goals per night.

In the good news department, it sounds like Nico Hischier avoided serious injury after not playing the third period against the Isles. And Erik Haula should be back to practice after missing Friday’s game.

Friday was a step in the right direction. The Devils will visit Montreal before coming back home to host the Caps on Wednesday this week. Hopefully by Thursday morning, the Devils have couple more tallies in the win column and a few more worries are quelled.

78 more to go. Let’s go Devils.