You might have thought this blog was dead. And you might have been right. Since this blog was born in the heart of COVID, the most consistent thing about it has been its inconsistency.
And for the small audience who have appreciated and celebrated the blog, it is to you I apologize the most. But let’s be honest, this blog has been most fun to write and to read when the Devils are relevant. And when I penned my most recent post in December 2023, the Devils were in the middle of becoming one of the most disappointing storylines for the 23-24 season.
But the subject of today’s blog is not to examine past failures. No, it is not.
Today, as the Devils faithful are aware, marks the start of the playoffs for our team.
Game 1 in Raleigh, North Carolina, against an all too familiar foe, the Carolina Fuckin’ Hurricanes.
The stingy, structured, disciplined, machine-like, Rod Brind’Amour Hurricanes, who have been amongst the leagues most consistent upper echelon teams the last many years. They boast a deep, talented, and most importantly healthy lineup heading into the series.
While the average hockey fan may not think twice about a New Jersey vs Carolina series, in terms of the depth of its rivalry and history, real Devils fans don’t need to be reminded of said history, and the resulting, justified hatred we should harbor against the former Whalers franchise.
As I chronicled in my second round series preview two years ago against this same Carolina team, the Devils have not had a more frustrating and heartbreaking opponent in the playoffs these last 20 or so years than the Hurricanes.
- 2023 Playoffs: Second round, Devils eliminated by Carolina in five games.
- 2009 Playoffs: First Round, Devils eliminated by Carolina in seven games in an absolute heartbreaker.
- 2006 Playoffs: Second Round, Devils eliminated by Carolina in five games.
Good ole Rod the Bod was captain of said Carolina teams in ’06 & ’09. That guy must salivate at any opportunity to play the Devils, based on his career success against them.
And if you are following the media or any analysts leading up to this years playoffs, this will be the fourth time in the last nine playoff appearances the Devils will have been eliminated by the Hurricanes.
The Devils have the lowest probability of winning in the opening round, according to Vegas and the oddsmakers, at something like 9%. Smart money’s on the Canes.
Yuck.
But we’re not about the ‘smart money’ here. We’re all about the vibes here at WOTD. So, fret not, fellow fan and reader – as you have come to expect from this blog, we’ll look at a few reasons for optimism, within the confines of reality.
What Needs To Go Right For New Jersey
Here are few keys to the series, in my opinion, if the underdog Devils are to move on:
Markstrom Series MVP: The Hurricanes outshoot their opponents by the widest margin in the league. They were #1 in shot differential this season at +553. That’s a lot of shots. The Canes play a frustrating, structured game, as mentioned above. They generate a ton of shots, and don’t give many up. That means more often than not, for their opponent to best them, the Canes need to get goalie’d. The good news here is that I do believe Jacob Markstrom is the best goaltender in this series. Specifically, the Devils will need two stolen wins from their Swedish netminder.
Nico Outduels Aho: With Jack Hughes out for this series (sobs silently), the first-line centers for both teams will see plenty of one another. Hischier and Aho are very similar players – both contribute around a point-per-game of offense to their clubs, while they are both more than capable of handling difficult, top-of-lineup matchups defensively. While Hischier probably owns the edge as a defensive stalwart, Aho probably has a slightly more potent offensive game.
One unfortunate aspect of J.Hughes absence for the Devils is that they will need the best of both sides of Hischier’s game to have success. It’s too much to ask of the captain, but at the very least he will need to have better individual outputs than his counterpart in Aho.
The Ascension of Luke Continues: When Dougie Hamilton went down for the Devils in early March, right after Jack Hughes, the outlook was bleak for the team. And while there have been plenty of expected bumps in the road since, Luke Hughes has not been one of them. The younger Hughes has been one of brightest spots in the Devils lineup every night, and has grabbed ahold of the reins as the Devils de facto top defenseman.
While his defensive game has grown in leaps and bounds this entire season, his offensive prowess returned with Dougie sidelined – keeping the Devils top 10 power play unit potent, and finishing with the 3rd most assists amongst NHL defensemen since Hamilton’s injury. If Luke can continue to raise his game, he is a major X-factor in this series. He is one of few Devils players who can singlehandedly create offense. To beat a structured and defensively stout team like the Canes, you need game-breakers who are capable of heroic individual efforts. Luke has that ability.
Five On Five Scoring: For those who know playoff hockey, the teams that go the furthest, and ultimately win Stanley Cups, are the teams that score the most at even strength. When the going gets tough, and the refs put the whistles away, special teams become far less relevant. This is probably the biggest concern for the Devils, as the team’s offense has mostly stayed afloat in the wake of Hughes’ injury due to its powerplay success. Their five on five scoring has not been great. Obviously, the Nicos, and Bratts, and Timos need to show up and be the top-end players they are, but the Devils are going to need significant contributions from their depth players, many of whom are playing higher in the lineup than they should be with the injuries. In no particular order, I’m looking for that ‘playoff dawg’ from: Paul Cotter, Dawson Mercer, Stefan Noeson, Ondrej Palat, Daniel Sprong. I think if those five players are quiet, the Devils are cooked.
Capitalize On Power Play: Despite the importance I just placed on even strength scoring, we know the Hurricanes will be stifling and difficult to score against five on five. To win the series, the Devils will need to find a way. However, they will alleviate some of that pressure if they are opportunistic when they do have the man advantage. This series will be low-event hockey if the Canes game is true to form. And without an efficient power play, I don’t believe the Devils move on.
Game Within The Game: In a seven game series, Carolina will frustrate you with their structured play. The Devils, unfortunately, are not deep or talented enough with their current roster to try and beat the Canes at their own game. So how can you frustrate them? You have to get mean, dirty, and play right up to that edge. While the Devils don’t get pushed around by many teams in the league, they don’t really do a lot of bullying either. That may need to change for this series to go their way. You’re going to need some snarl and some piss and vinegar to frustrate a few of the Canes top players, and knock them off their structure. Top candidates? Timo Meier, Stefan Noesen, Paul Cotter, Nate Bastian, Brendan Dillon.
Make no mistake, there is a lot that will need to go right for New Jersey in this series. Near-perfect play, a few Herculean efforts, and a little bit of luck will be the only way to beat one of the league’s top teams.
Here are a few more random, quick hitting musings I have going into the series:
- Jaccob Slavin is the best defenseman in the series, and maybe the best player overall. He is one of a very select few elite defensemen in the league who can matchup and shutdown players like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Mathews, etc. With Jack Huges out, his job in this series to shutdown Hischier and Bratt could be the easiest matchup he has in these playoffs, putting even more strain on the rest of the Devils already-thin depth.
- The depth of Devils forwards does not inspire confidence. It’s a sad reality. Every time I put together a lineup in my head, the Devils are two very large holes away from having a properly competitive forward group capable of creating offense in this series. We’ve seen it down the stretch, and it’s been a harsh reality of a Jack Hughes-less Devils team.
- The Hurricanes goaltenders are not good. Or at least, they certainly don’t scare me if I’m the Devils. It’s part of the reason the Hurricanes structure benefits them – they don’t need heroic efforts from their goaltenders to win games. Throw as much rubber as you possibly can at them.
- Reaching For X-Factors? With Hamilton back, the Devils do have a reasonably impressive D-core. And with Luke playing as well as he has, there is no need to rush Hamilton back to his usual role. He can play a bit more sheltered as he works to get his timing and legs back. But what if there is an injury? On paper, Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey have not inspired much confidence, should either need to enter the lineup. HOWEVER, they are both supremely talented, high-end prospects. While their play has been subpar down the stretch for the Devils (bear with me for a moment, as I let the vibes rip), Nemec strikes me as a proud, confident bastard. They both do, really. But maybe Nemo is built for that high-pressure, high-stakes, don’t-count-me-out type of game energy. If it gets to that, we had all better hope that’s the case.
- Survive. The shift, the period, the game. I’m not delusional enough to think the Devils have a chance to win this series in four or five. It will take six, probably seven if the Devils are going to do this. So you need to survive. You need to prepare mentally and physically for a long, two week series. You need to hang in there and be tough, particularly as the Canes brandish their suffocating and frustrating game.
Look, there are tons of excuses to make if the Devils get dropped this series.
“It wasn’t our year.”
“The injuries were too much.”
“Next year when Jack is back…”
I get it, trust me, I get it. But here’s the thing about hockey: nothing is certain.
Ondrej Palat said it best after practice the other day: don’t take this for granted. NHL teams play a long, grueling, physically demanding 82 games to get to this point. And for what – to be happy to be there? To get bounced in four or five games?
Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt are in their eighth NHL season. They have won one single playoff series, and haven’t had two consecutive seasons in a row making the playoffs. Jacob Markstom just turned 35, how many more opportunities will he have to make a run? Dougie Hamilton, Timo Meier, Brett Pesce, Erik Haula, Stefan Noesen have a combined 242 playoff games played. Zero Stanley Cups.
Nothing is guaranteed. You never know what the future holds. You don’t know when or if another opportunity will come.
There are guys in that locker room who understand that fact. There is pride. There is urgency. There is a willingness to do whatever it takes.
So let’s channel that: nothing is certain. Not even a 91% Vegas probability. The Stanley Cup playoffs are all about surprises. All about upsets. All about the storyline no one saw coming. So, why not us? Why not believe?
Devils in seven. Let’s go Devils.
Word Of The Devil 