Post #7: Playoffs?!

Just when you thought this blog was dead… we’re back! I’d like to say I intentionally didn’t post between game 3 and game 82 this season, but that just ain’t true. However, it does make for a fun comparison post – as I made a bunch of predictions back on October 17th, and now we get to look back on them with hindsight.

More importantly, we get to talk about the previously unthinkable: the New Jersey Devils will face off against their hated rivals in round 1 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, with home ice advantage!

Let’s jump into it.

The first thing I have to say is this: what an incredible season. It has been so damn fun to be a Devils fan for the first time in a very long time. By literally every measure possible, the franchise is in an incredible place. They Devils are and should be the envy of the league, in my opinion, with how they are positioned right now – more on that in another post.

In the meantime, seriously, what a ride this season has been and I am so grateful for it.

In game 82, the Devils set franchise records in both points (112) and games won (52) in a single season, and they also set an NHL record for the largest point improvement season over season (+49). Jack Hughes set a new franchise record for most points in a single season (99) and brother Luke scored the game winning goal in overtime for the first of his promising career in just his 2nd career game.

I couldn’t have imagined the season they had this year in my wildest dreams. Though I count myself as an optimist, you’ll recall in my last post from October, I was writing about what had to go right for the Devils just to play in meaningful games down the stretch. Well, we got far more than what most of us bargained for. Let’s take a look at some of the things I mentioned in that post.

No-Gaudreau is a silver lining. I discussed the Devils missing out on the Gaudreau sweepstakes as a great silver lining. That stands as a good take. The Devils likely would have had a great season with Johnny Gaudreau, absolutely. However, would it have been as good? How much more cap-strapped would we be now? Would we have been able to land Timo Meier at the deadline? And how undersized would our forward group look heading into the post-season right now? I say again – silver lining. Good take.

Excitement for Marino. I mentioned that of all the offseason additions, I was particularly excited for John Marino, hoping for top-4 upside out of him. Boy, did that trade turn out well. Marino and Graves have been one of the most effective defensive pairs in the league at shutting down top-end opposing players. Marino has been lights out.

Keys To Success: Goaltending. The Mackenzie Blackwood injuries and question marks unfortunately continued in ’22-23. But Vitek Vanecek did not falter. Neither did Akira Schmid during his time this year. Goaltending was borderline excellent this season – the Devils were 8th in the league in total goals against this season.

Keys To Success: Everything Else. I mentioned seven other things that needed to happen for the Devils to make a playoff run. Here’s what they were:

• Dougie Hamilton needs to be the elite, top-end defenseman we paid him to be – NAILED IT 
• Jack Hughes needs to play 70+ games – NAILED IT
• Nico Hischier needs to play 70+ games – NAILED IT
• Jesper Bratt needs to maintain last year’s play – NAILED IT
• Palat, Marino need to be a touch better than they’ve been in previous seasons – YES on Marino, NO on Palat
• Mercer, Sharangovich, Holtz need to all take another step – Mercer did, Sharry took a step back, Holtz kind of status quo

• One of Kevin Bahl, Tyce Thompson, Jesper Boqvist, Fabian Zetterlund need to become NHL regulars and outplay their expectations – Bahl, Zetterlund, Boqvist all became NHL regulars, with Z becoming a centerpiece on the Meier trade

I was negative on Tomas Tatar, but he had a nice season. He was very effective: 5th in the league in +/-, 20G, 48P. I’ll take my lumps on that one, however, most of his effectiveness came while playing on a line with one of Hughes or Hischier. I’m still not 100% convinced that Sharangovich couldn’t have had similar production given the same minutes and linemates Tatar had all season.

Let’s do a little more gloating as we segue into this tantalizing round 1 matchup.

• The Devils had two 40+ goal scorers, four 30+ goal scorers, seven 20+ goal scorers, and 11 players score 10+ goals

• The Devils had four 70+ point scorers, six 50+ point scorers, and eight 40+ point scorers
• Both Schmid & Vanecek turned in a sub-2.45 GAA
• Three Devils finished in the top 11 for +/- league wide (Tatar, Graves, Hischier)

Historic season. And all that to draw our most hated rivals, the New York Rangers, in round 1.

The Rags are no joke – they finished 3rd in the Metro, 5th in the East, and 9th in the League. They’ve got playoff pedigree, cup-winning veterans, and arguably the best goaltender in the league. They’re heavier, and more experienced than the Devils. All of that historically spells success in the SC Playoffs.

If I were completely unbiased, I’d be hard-pressed to take the Rangers. But I’m not unbiased. And having said all that, respectfully, fuck ’em.

Let’s break down the series and talk about what needs to go right for the Devils to continue their season into May.

Goaltending. I might be a Devils fan, but I’m not crazy. Shesterkin is a world-class goalie and the Rangers have the edge here. He could end up being the story of the series. For the Devils sake, let’s hope not. Vanecek, the presumed starter for the Devils, will need to be as good as he was in the regular season. He probably will need a game or two where he is outstanding and matches Shesterkin’s performance. But I don’t think he needs to be elite in every single game to win this series. The bigger question mark right now is who backs up – Blackwood or Schmid?

• The Devils win IF: Vanecek steals one game, and plays close to his season average the rest of the series
• The Devils lose IF: Vanecek plays poorly, and all of the sudden the Devils are contemplating who should start after a couple of games (disaster scenario)

Defense. Of the three categories, this is the one with the most parity. Rangers have the goaltending edge, Devils likely have the edge in their forward group, but both of these defenses are good.

Both groups boast a high-end #1 defensemen (Hamilton, Fox). Both have a rock-solid top four with rangy, physical guys who can stymie the very best forwards in the league. Siegenthaler, Marino, Graves. Trouba, Miller, Lindgren.

That’s why I think this series comes down to the third pairing – and I give the edge to the Devils.

I’ve been critical of Damon Severson for years, but at the end of the day – this guy has been a Devil his entire career. He’s one of few who were with the team 5 years ago when we had our last playoff dance. He’s been loyal, and vocal about his pride being a Devil. He’s been a quiet leader this year with his minutes reduced. This is likely his last season with the Devils as a pending UFA. I think he comes and brings the passion.

On his flank you’ve got a ton of intrigue. Kevin Bahl likely gets the first crack. He’s come along really nicely this season and has played some excellent hockey down the stretch. I’m hopeful his big frame, physicality, and steadiness translate well to playoff hockey. If not – you have two opposite ends of the spectrum in Brendan Smith, a physical veteran with limited upside; and rookie Luke Hughes, the smooth skating, offensive dynamo.

• The Devils win IF: Severson-Bahl are better than Mikkola-Schneider AND Graves-Marino take care of business and begin to look like that old reliable shutdown pair you need to win a Stanley Cup (Rob Scuderi-Hal Gill circa ’09 Penguins).
• The Devils lose IF: Hamilton dries up, Bahl is exposed, and our stalwart defensemen in Siegs/Graves/Marino look pedestrian.
• For fun: X-Factor Luke Hughes comes in and puts on a Cale Makar circa 2019 playoff performance to let everyone know he has arrived and isn’t going anywhere.

Forwards. This one comes down to styles of play. Both teams boast superstars, though I give the Devils the edge in pure skill and speed. The Rangers generate off the cycle and in-zone, while the Devils were basically the best team in the league off the rush. The Devils are speedy and slight, the Rangers are heavy and powerful. Playoff hockey favors the Rangers, but these young Devils have defied expectations all year long.

To that end, I think this series comes down to a handful of names in both groups.

• Can Hischier outduel Zibanejad?
• Can Timo Meier bring the physicality and scoring touch successful playoff teams need?
• Can Ondrej Palat rekindle the magical playoff powers he possessed in Tampa, which got him paid in NJ?
• Is Patrick Kane over the hill?
• Can Hughes/Bratt/Mercer make an impact despite their size?

Here’s my verdict. I think it’s quite possible Jack Hughes disappears for the majority of the series while he adjusts to playoff hockey. But I think the Devils can overcome that. The fourth line of Wood-McLeod-Bastian will need to be fiery and physical. Haula, Palat, and Meier will need to play heavy and make an impact. But the X-factors come down to this:

• The Devils will win IF: Nico Hischier carries the load, Dawson Mercer turns into a playoff performer (I think he will), and the Devils find a way to generate outside the rush.
• The Devils will lose IF: Patrick Kane rekindles his playoff magic and the Rangers “heavier” forwards dominate the Devils physically.

Here’s what I know – this series is going to be tight. Both teams and their fan bases want this one bad. Regardless of a Stanley Cup finish for either, winning playoff series between these teams has proven to echo forward well into the future.

Matteau! Matteau! Matteau!

Henrique – it’s over!

Who’s it going to be this time around?

Devils in 7. Book it. LFG.